Ready reckoner: Group B permutations & possibilities

Firstly, here’s the Group B table after Day 9:

GROUP B
TEAM	M	W	L	PT	NRR
Ireland*	6	4	2	8	1.591
Oman*	5	4	1	8	1.388
UAE	5	3	2	6	0.656
Canada	5	3	2	6	0.433
Jersey	5	2	3	4	-0.039
Hong Kong	5	2	3	4	-0.383
Nigeria	5	0	5	0	-4.326

And here is the chat with Peter Della Penna between Abu Dhabi & Dubai:

Ireland has played their six group matches, and have secured their playoff spot and are currently on equal on points with Oman but ahead on NRR.

The remaining six group sides all play their finals games tomorrow in Abu Dhabi:

Hong Kong v Nigeria (10h00) at Tolerance Oval / ADC 1 (not televised);
Oman v Jersey (14h10) &
UAE v Canada (19h30) at Zayed Cricket Stadium (both TV games).

So, what are the possibilities and permutations for Group B?

If Oman wins (by any margin) over Jersey, they will top the group and book their ticket to Australia.

For Jersey to be a chance they need to defeat Oman, and hope whoever wins between Canada & UAE does so by a huge margin to try and bring the loser’s NRR down so they can sneak past.

The winner between Canada and UAE is guaranteed a playoff spot. The loser, has to hope their NRR does not drop below either Hong Kong’s or Jersey’s, as either team could overtake them for fourth spot. (A stupendously large victory to either side could also bring them in sight of Ireland’s NRR, too, but highly unlikely)

Hong Kong needs to defeat Nigeria as heavily as possible to bring their NRR up from -0.383. Similar to Jersey, they need the loser of Canada & UAE to have an as-heavy loss as possible, to make up the 1.039 (UAE) or 0.816 (Canada).

After losing their first five, Nigeria’s will only be playing for pride against Hong Kong at Tolerance Oval, in Sunday’s morning game